Author 1:
Name & Surname: Zhukova S. A.
Company: Geophysical Monitoring Center, Apatit JSC (Kirovsk, Russia)
Work Position: Principal Engineer–Geophysicist
Contacts: SZukova@prosagro.ru

Author 2:
Name & Surname: Samsonov A. V.
Company: Geophysical Monitoring Center, Apatit JSC (Kirovsk, Russia)
Work Position: Category I Engineer–Geophysicist

Over the time of buildup and development, Apatit JSC has been drawing reserves from the apatite-nepheline ore deposits of the Khibiny Mountains: Apatite Circus, Rasvumchorr Plateau, Kukisvumchorr and Yukspor deposits. The long-term mining impact and the vast areas undermined, including faulting zones, condition the instability of the Khibiny Mountains area. The article describes the research of the relationship between the seismicity in the area of the long-term opencast and underground mining of the Khibiny apatite-nepheline ore and the seasonal watercut and water saturation of undermined rocks and mine goafs. Based on the research findings, criteria are set for water influxes that come before hazardous induced seismicity, and the procedure and the technology-and-equipment complex are developed on this basis for forecasting seismic activity dynamics depending on weather and ground water hydrology. The authors give real-life examples of the seismicity forecasting using the algorithm and the computer-aided programming Seasonal Seismic Identification System (AS SSAIS) Thus, for the conditions of Apatit JSC ore bodies and mines, the modern technology-and-equipment complex has been designed and adopted for forecasting seismic activity dynamics based on the joint analysis of the seismicity and weather and hydro-monitoring, with the assessment of natural impact on the induced seismicity.

1. Trudy Gosudarstvennogo nauchno-issledovatelskogo instituta gornokhimicheskogo syrya. Vypusk 10, Khibinskie apatitovye mestorozhdeniya (Proceedings of State Scientific-Research Institute of Mining-Chemical Raw Materials. Issue 10, Khibiny apatite deposits). Moscow : Nedra, 1965. pp. 291–292. (in Russian).
2. Zhukova S. A. Vliyanie obvodnennosti porod na seysmichnost mestorozhdeniya apatit-nefelinovykh rud (Influence of water cut of rocks on seismicity of apatite-nepheline ores deposit). Dobycha i pererabotka rud v usloviyakh ukhudsheniya ikh zaleganiya i snizheniya kachestva : tezis dokladov nauchnoy shkoly molodykh uchenykh i spetsialistov (Extraction and processing of ores in conditions of complication of their bedding and quality decreasing : thesis of reports of scientific school of young scientists and specialists). Apatity : Mining Institute of Kola Science Center of Russian Academy of Sciences, 2009. pp. 10–12.
3. Kozyrev A. A., Akkuratov M. V., Fedotova Yu. V., Zhukova S. A. Vliyanie obvodnennosti porod na seysmichnost (Influence of water cut of rocks on seismicity). Kompleksnye geologo-geofizicheskie modeli drevnikh shchitov : trudy Vserossiyskoy (s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem) nauchnoy konferentsii (Complex geological-geophysical models of ancient rock beds : proceedings of All-Russian scientific conference (with international participation)). Apatity : Geological Institute of Kola Science Center of Russian Academy of Sciences, 2009. pp. 243–247.
4. Fedotova Yu. V., Zhukova S. A. Vliyanie prirodnykh faktorov na proyavleniya tekhnogennoy seysmichnosti (Influence of natural factors on anthropogenic seismicity events). Sovremennye metody obrabotki i interpretatsii seysmologicheskikh dannykh (Modern methods of seismological data processing and interpretation). Materialy shestoy Mezhdunarodnoy seysmologicheskoy shkoly (Materials of the 6-th International seismological school). Obninsk : Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences, 2011. pp. 340–343.
5. Fedotova Y., Kozyrev A., Akkuratov M., Zhukova S. Rock mass watering impact on induced seismicity in junction zone between underground mine and open-pit mine. Abstract book ESC 2010. Montpellier, France, 6–10 September 2010. p. 157.