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ECONOMY, ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT
ArticleName Estimation of uranium production peak
ArticleAuthor Kharitonov V. V., Kabashev K. V., Kurel’chuk U. N.
ArticleAuthorData

National Research Nuclear University “MEPhI” (Moscow, Russia):

Kharitonov V. V., Professor, Doctor of Physico-Mathematical Sciences, e-mail: VVKharitonov@mephi.ru
Kabashev K. V., Postgraduate
Kurel’chuk U. N., Magister

Abstract

The article analyzes the state-of-the-art of natural uranium reserves and consumption in the global nuclear power engineering. The analysis states deficiency of this non-renewable resource for the long-period development of the said industry branch given the nuclear reactors available. The authors describe analytical “relaxation model” of predicting trends and peaks in natural uranium production based on its existing reserves and factual mining rate, level and technology. Using the offered model, uranium production profile is calculated for Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, USA and the world to the end of the 21st century. The calculations yield that the peak of uranium production in the listed countries can be reached during 2015–2040. In the other half of the 21st century, uranium production in the world, at the operating deposits and with the available technologies will sensibly reduce, while in USA the natural uranium reserves at cost of 130 USD per 1 kg will be depleted. Thus, economically acceptable reserves of natural uranium, under conditions of its inefficient use in the existing slow neutron reactors, are low. They are under the energy-equivalent oil reserves and unequally accessible in different countries. The basis for the long-term development of nuclear engineering should be fast-neutron breeder reactors that enable enlargement of the nuclear engineering resource base 100 times and above owing to inclusion of isotopes of uranium 238 and thorium 232 in the fuel cycle. Commercially adoptable and safe fast neutron reactors should be widely introduced in the electric power industry as soon as the mid 21st century while natural uranium is still sufficient for their startup. The proposed model is suitable for annual monitoring and adjustment of uranium production profile (as well as for other non-renewable resources), considering new data on input parameters (latest rates of change and level of annual output, refined evidence on uranium reserves by the beginning of a forecast period).

keywords Uranium production profile, forecast, production peak, production rate, uranium reserves in place, reserves depletion period
References

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