State University of Management, Moscow, Russia:

Yu. N. Linnik, Professor, Doctor of Engineering Sciences
V. Yu. Linnik, Associate Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences, vy_linnik@guu.ru

Tula State University, Tula, Russia:
A. B. Zhabin, Professor, Doctor of Engineering Sciences

MS QF GmbH, Oderwitz, Germany:
A. Tsikh, Energy Efficiency Consultant, Doctor of Engineering Sciences

In recent years, Russia has seen a significant increase in coal production, which is associated with an increase in fuel exports to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region (APR). The remoteness of coal production facilities from the final consumers of coal and the insufficient capacity of the railway and port infrastructure constrain coal exports, and railway tariffs reduce the competitiveness of Russian coal on the world market. The article separately examines the state and key factors that constrain the growth of cargo flows and the increase in coal exports, especially to the Asia–Pacific countries, as the most promising direction. The main directions of the port and railway infrastructure development prospects are identified and highlighted. It is shown that for transshipment of projected volumes of coal for export, the throughput capacity of coal terminals should increase to 230 million tons by 2030, including coal transshipment ports in the Far East—up to 185 million tons. Based on the long-term forecast of global energy consumption growth, using a linear forecasting model, the volumes of coal exports in the medium and long term are determined and the required additional logistics capacities are estimated, taking into account the potential for increasing coal exports. The state of the car fleet used in railway transportation of coal was evaluated and its quantity was determined taking into account the increase in the volume of coal transportation for Russian and foreign consumers. In conclusion, measures are defined to overcome the risks and threats associated with transport infrastructure and coal transportation tariffs.

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